I had somewhat of this mindset also a few years ago. I kept thinking stocks and home prices are getting high and it has to stop sometime, but it hasn't, and there isn't much sign of any slowdown. However, at some point stocks will see a sizable pull back. What about Real Estate? The more I've considered the consequences of a recession, the less worried about it I have gotten.
According to ATTOM Data Solutions (big time real estate data tracking company), there have only been 2 times in the past 5 recessions that Real Estate prices have declined. The obvious one was 2008, and the second one was in 1990, where they decreased by less than 1%. So in reality, for the last 30 years housing prices only plummeted one time. The cause of this was all the subprime mortgages and lenders handing out loans to anyone with a pulse. The lending industry has completely changed since then with new regulations.
I don't see any reason housing will be greatly impacted during the next recession unless there is some massive world event. Demand is very high right now, and supply is very low. Most homes under construction now are larger homes homes meant for those moving up in housing. The smaller ones being built are updated and expensive, mostly appealing to those downsizing. Even if there is an economic slowdown I definitely don't see homes under $200k being effected at all. Builders are not building homes at this price point anymore (in Hendricks County such as Avon, Brownsburg, Danville, and Plainfield), so they will continue to go up in value.
If you have some thoughts on the next recession impact leave them below, or send me a message.